Many NRIs think of return, but prospects in India are no brighter

3 Nov, 2008, 0010 hrs IST, IANS

NEW DELHI: Ajit Singh, an investment adviser in Boston working for one of Europe's largest commercial banks, had it all good a year ago. Engaged to be married later this year, he now finds that his big fat Indian wedding has been called off, while his great American dream has come crashing down.

"The girl's parents called off the wedding when they heard about people losing jobs in the US. They were no longer sure about the stability of my job," Singh told IANS over phone from Boston.

His situation, perhaps, isn't as bad as it was for Karthik Rajaram, a Los Angeles-based financial adviser, who recently killed five members of his family and himself after his finances were wiped out in the stock market crash.

There is no place like home - this is a cliché that is appealing to a host of non-resident Indians in the US and Europe these days as they look for prospects back home, fearing large-scale job losses in the lands of their dreams.

But the opportunities in India are no brighter.

Kunal Banerjee, chief executive of headhunting firm Absolute HR Services, says cases like that of Ajit Singh were not isolated, as the number of jobless people in the US touched 9.77 million in September, the highest in 16 years, and has been worsening with each passing day.

"The number of resumes from people wanting to come back has doubled. The hardest hit are the ones employed in financial and IT services," Banerjee told media.

"It is too early to comment on whether we will witness a mass exodus. The actual picture, I guess, will get clearer by mid-November or so when companies start to gauge the real impact of the meltdown."

Kris Lakshmikanth, chief executive and managing director of the Bangalore-based staffing agency Head Hunters India, also feels that non-resident Indians will start coming back to India in droves.

"We have seen a more than 100 percent jump in NRI resumes since July," he said.

"The US and other Western economies are in bad shape and jobs will continue to disappear. The US unemployment rate, which is around six percent currently, could reach double digits by the first quarter of 2009."

Top executives at headhunting firms said the type of visa, especially to the US, was also a determinant of how quickly or in what desperation people will make that trip back home.

"A lot of them to the US, for example, have gone on H1-B or L-1 visas. Software companies typically sponsor these visas. But since their margins are under severe pressure, they have started laying off people," he said.

"For H1-B cases, the visas stand null and void and the person would have to come back unless he finds another employer. But for people working for Indian firms like Infosys or Wipro, they have to come back and join the Indian operations - that is, if the employers still want them around."