IT majors worried about cascading effect of Dubai crisis

MUMBAI/BANGALORE: As Dubai World, the emirate’s investment firm seeks more time to repay almost $60-billion debt, India’s top tech firms fear
that the once lucrative West Asia market for outsourcing can enter a prolonged recession and customers in other top export markets of the US and Europe may exercise more caution while making outsourcing decisions.

Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), Infosys Technologies, Wipro, HCL and Patni Computer Systems are among Indian tech firms serving telecom, banking and other customers in the West Asia region. Dubai, the biggest commercial hub in the region saw home prices plunge by nearly half from 2008 levels, reflecting the worst real estate slump during the global recession, according to Deutsche BankAG.

“Global confidence is coming back. We were hoping for more spends. But now the confidence of our customers is shaking. I expect they are going to be a bit more cautious about spends and will not open up so much. Budgets were getting firmed up in December—clients will now relook at the whole thing,” said a senior software executive with one of the firms that was looking at the West Asia and Africa as a growth markets. Publicly, though, few firms are willing to admit to these worries.

While Wipro counts Qatar Petroleum and Road and Transport Authority of Dubai among its top customers, TCS serves Saudi Telecom. Domestic rivals Mahindra Satyam also counts Dubai Municipality and National Bank of Dubai among its key customers in the region.
Wipro’s Anand Sankaran said the crisis was not entirely unanticipated as reports of people in Dubai abandoning their cars in airports because of the economic slowdown have been around for 9-12 months. “To mitigate this risk, we started looking outside Dubai,” he said. Wipro’s IT business in the West Asia is around $80 million and its Dubai business is 15-20% of it.

Apart from exposure to Dubai, the impact on companies could be lower IT spends from West Asia, which was perceived to be a growth market. Tech Mahindra had announced several wins from the West Asia and multinationals like CapGemini had appointed a partner-level executive to open up the market, as opposed to handling it from its UK office earlier.
But possibly more worrying are Dubai’s linkages to the financial world. “Dubai has a lot of financial connections and there could be a
ripple value on the dollar. Any imbalances in the economy could have potential impact on the stability of the dollar and IT spending as well. Further, it is a negative sentiment for the financial sector,” said Ganesh Natarajan, former Nasscom chairman and CEO Zensar Technologies.

“West Asia accounts for mere 1-1.5% of exposure for Indian IT. So the revenue risk is only to that extent. However, the indirect impact could be more severe. Because European and US banks have direct exposure to West Asia, increasing default risk will turn this industry to be conservative in allocating capital and in their spendings, including IT spending,” said Alok Shende, principal analyst, Ascentius Consulting.

“US banks had recently started coming out to of their hibernation, and since US and European banking industry have a significant pie of Indian outsourcing industry, the risk aversion could slowdown the pace of outsourcing,” Mr Shende added. Mastek CMD Sudhakar Ram, however, said the impact was only a second or third order impact, it would not be very major. “As it is, companies were spending only on keeping the lights on. So they cannot cut back on that,” he said. But if indeed customers continue to spend only on keeping the lights on (or in other words, only absolutely necessary spends), then the much-awaited recovery that IT firms were anticipating may be delayed yet some more.